Is Cyril set for a shock come December?

So why would KZN back a candidate [Zweli Mkhize] who may not even be eligible to stand? It could be a pushback against Jacob Zuma’s attempt to bully the province into backing Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. But that’s only part of the equation. The province is also unhappy with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and believes he has to be challenged for the position, writes Natasha Marrian

The ANC’s largest province, KwaZulu-Natal, has its eye fixed firmly on 2024.

The revelation this week that it will back former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa for the party presidency in December is an indication of two things. First, it is a loud signal to former president Jacob Zuma that he cannot dictate leadership preferences to the provincial ANC. Second, it is a move to unite the party in the province in the run-up to the 2024 national election.

It’s been a busy few weeks in KZN politics.

Last week, eThekwini — the province’s and SA’s largest ANC region — came out in support of Mkhize’s bid for president. This was despite noise around co-operative governance & traditional affairs minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma also throwing her hat in the ring — a move preceded by a ringing endorsement from Zuma himself.

It was the first tangible sign that DlaminiZuma’s newly minted campaign will be dead in the water.

The eThekwini region is hugely significant in KZN politics. On the eve of the province’s hotly contested leadership race in July, eThekwini quietly held a regional general council at which it presented one Siboniso Duma as provincial chair.

At the provincial conference the next day, Duma was up against Ramaphosa’s preferred candidate Sihle Zikalala (then the premier of KZN) as well as radical economic transformation (RET) candidate Nomusa Dube-Ncube.

To the surprise of Ramaphosa’s faction, Duma won the vote. But that might not have come as much of a shock to others. After all, Duma had been a part of Ramaphosa’s CR17 campaign for the ANC presidency in 2017, but was shunned and ignored by that group in the aftermath of the elective conference.

Significant here is that the first sign of Duma’s victory was his endorsement by eThekwini. So, when the region pronounced on Mkhize last week, it was a clear signal that the embattled former health minister would be endorsed by the province after its provincial executive committee (PEC) meeting early this week.

Zuma, too, may have had an inkling that the province wasn’t going to get behind his preferred candidate. So, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, he issued a statement endorsing Dlamini-Zuma for the ANC presidency — while also putting up his own hand for the position of party chair. It’s his intention to take on the incumbent, Gwede Mantashe, who is Ramaphosa’s preferred candidate for the job.

It was not, however, enough to sway the KZN leadership. The FM understands the provincial leaders are sympathetic to Zuma’s legal plight and are opposed to his “persecution”. But, politically, they have moved on.

This is the strongest indication since 2017 that Zuma’s influence in the ANC has dwindled, and is now limited to what can only be described as a fringe group of national executive committee members. Counting the likes of Tony Yengeni among their number, they too are likely on their way out of the party’s top leadership structure.

So what to make of Mkhize’s campaign? It’s likely to be unsuccessful — and the KZN leadership knows it.

Mkhize has been tainted by the Digital Vibes scandal: during his tenure as health minister, a R150m communications tender was awarded to his close associates by the department — and is said to have benefited members of his family.

In a bid to clear his name ahead of the December elective conference, Mkhize is challenging the Special Investigating Unit to provide him with evidence of his wrongdoing. It could be a make-or-break move for Mkhize: under ANC rules, any leader implicated in wrongdoing may not stand for election to party leadership positions.

So why would KZN back a candidate who may not even be eligible to stand? It could be a pushback against Zuma’s attempt to bully the province into backing Dlamini-Zuma. But that’s only part of the equation. The province is also unhappy with Ramaphosa’s leadership and believes he has to be challenged for the position.

Most significant, though, is that KZN is putting forward a candidate the entire province could conceivably get behind. That means that when the provincial leaders return from the national conference, their political hold on the region will remain intact.

That said, KZN’s statement on its leadership preference is telling: “We are open to persuasion by various provinces of the ANC ... we want to persuade them and be persuaded ... we shall agree and accept what is best for the ANC and our country.”

This could mean that if Mkhize is unable to stand, or if the provincial leadership is suitably persuaded to change its allegiance, KZN may throw its lot behind Ramaphosa — possibly in return for having one of its leaders represented in the top six.

Former provincial secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli, who is set to stand for the position of ANC secretary-general, could just be that leader. In the aftermath of the 2017 elective conference, KZN not only had no representation in the party’s top six, it also returned from the conference scattered and divided. Thereafter, Zikalala proved unable to unite the province ahead of the 2019 and 2021 elections, culminating in the ANC losing key municipalities.

The leadership core’s conduct thus far has been one of forging unity with the various groupings in the province. The first evidence of this was accommodating Ntuli — who appeared on Zikalala’s slate for the province — on the PEC. Thereafter, the PEC quickly got to work, restructuring the provincial government and appeasing the RET faction by appointing Dube-Ncube premier after Zikalala stepped down.

The “restructuring” continues, with heads of department being shifted out and around. But insiders close to KZN leaders observe these moves are “more transactional than political”.

For instance, shortly after their election, the provincial leaders met leaders of the EFF. ANC provincial secretary Bheki Mtolo was a close ally of the EFF’s Julius Malema during his tenure as ANC Youth League president. Mtolo held fundraisers and mobilised support for Malema after his expulsion from the party in 2012. Now the ANC in KZN will move to regain the municipalities it lost in 2021 — with the EFF’s help.

It’s a precursor to potential co-operation after the 2024 poll. If election trends hold, the ANC could lose its majority in the province. (Between 2014 and 2019, its support in the province dropped nearly 10 percentage points, from 65.3% to 55.5%.)

Another crucial development in KZN this week has been its support for ANC treasurergeneral Paul Mashatile as deputy president.

The position is hotly contested, as whoever is elected has a clear shot at the presidency, with Ramaphosa’s term ending at the 2027 elective conference. But that shot may come sooner than expected, if the Phala Phala saga means Ramaphosa is forced to step aside before then.

Despite the Ramaphosa faction’s best efforts, Mashatile appears to be steaming ahead of other contenders for the post, including Ramaphosa’s preferred candidate, human settlements minister Mmamoloko Kubayi.

It is likely that Ronald Lamola, another contender for the post, will instead stand for the chair position. While not as significant as deputy president, the post is also hotly contested and poses a significant challenge for the Ramaphosa camp.

Ramaphosa ally Mantashe is eyeing re-election, but Stan Mathabatha — chair of the numerically significant Limpopo province — has also raised his hand for the post. Interestingly, KZN and Gauteng have thrown their weight behind Mathabatha, as has Limpopo, which could cement his support and see Mantashe removed from the top six. That could weaken his political position beyond the December conference.

This weekend, more ANC branches are expected to meet to consolidate their positions ahead of the conference.

But things could still change. Back in 2017, Ramaphosa’s CR17 campaign was surprised at the conference by the emergence of David Mabuza as deputy president and Ace Magashule as secretary-general, despite the horsetrading that had taken place between regions months before.

The CR22 campaign appears to be following the same tack this time around. Though it is still early in the race, it’s clear that the outcome may once again leave Ramaphosa and his backers shocked.